The West wants to but cannot: Why a color revolution in Georgia will not happen.

Interview by Tatyana Stoyanovich, 16.10.2024

Ten days before the parliamentary elections in Georgia, it appears that the groundwork for a new color revolution is already in place. President Salome Zourabichvili, who opposes the ruling Georgian Dream party, has already accused the authorities of intending to falsify the election results.

According to her, the ruling party "Georgian Dream," which has been in power since 2012, is conducting an election campaign based on propaganda, polarization, and intimidation tactics "similar to those in Russia."

She also accused the ruling party of allegedly pressuring civil servants, attacking opposition activists, threatening journalists, and making it difficult for citizens abroad to participate in the elections.

Zourabichvili believes that the upcoming parliamentary elections will be decisive for the country's future, as citizens will have to choose between European aspirations and Russian influence.

Just a few days earlier, Zourabichvili informed journalists of her intention to present a full list of a technical government, which should be formed by the current opposition in the event of a "Georgian Dream" defeat. According to her, this should happen before the voting day on October 26, as citizens need to know who will hold the positions of prime minister and ministers if they vote against the current authorities.

The Kremlin dismissed the accusations of interference in the Georgian elections as unfounded but noted "the West's blatant attempts to pressure the Georgian authorities and influence the electoral process."

Among such attempts is the decision by the United Kingdom to freeze political dialogue with Georgia and cancel defense ministerial talks, as stated on October 15 in an interview with Interpressnews by the British Ambassador to Georgia, Gareth Ward.

The diplomat explained this decision as a response to the Georgian authorities' rhetoric, which London perceives as anti-Western. He expressed hope that after the elections, the Georgian government would return to a pro-Western course and that trust between the parties would be restored.

A second attempt to influence the results of the parliamentary elections in Georgia is the European Union leaders' intention to warn the Georgian people on the eve of the October 26 vote that the current government "jeopardizes" their European future. This warning is expected to be issued following the EU leaders' summit in Brussels on October 17–18, according to a recent report by Reuters.

According to the publication, Western capitals are increasingly concerned about the ruling "Georgian Dream's" rhetoric, which has become more favorable towards Russia, as well as the law on foreign agents and legislation restricting LGBT rights.

The document will also include a call for the Georgian authorities "to ensure free and fair parliamentary elections," Reuters notes.

All these statements indicate a clear Western desire to change the government in Georgia, said Archil Sikharulidze, a Georgian political scientist and founder of the SIKHA Foundation, in an interview with Ukraina.ru.

However, the West refuses to acknowledge that its desires no longer automatically translate into political reality in Georgia, added the political scientist. If ten or twenty years ago, Western statements could directly influence the Georgian electorate, today voters possess a certain political experience and cannot be easily persuaded, Sikharulidze noted.

"Therefore, while the desire exists, statistical data indicate that the potential realization of such intentions faces serious challenges. A significant portion of the Georgian population has developed what I call an indigenous political consciousness. Within this framework, Georgians pursue specific interests, primarily stability, peace, and a rejection of radicalism," the expert explained.

He emphasized that "Georgian Dream" promotes these approaches and, as a result, maintains a strong position, whereas the opposition, which bases its rhetoric on radical pro-Western sentiments, has failed to find a balanced middle ground. According to Sikharulidze, the West understands this and is therefore actively making statements to persuade voters.

Despite this, according to the latest forecasts, "Georgian Dream" is expected to receive 48–50% of the votes in the elections, while the opposition "United National Movement" is projected to secure 15–16%. A maximum of one more party may enter parliament, while all others are unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, the political scientist estimated. This would result in "Georgian Dream" obtaining a parliamentary majority and forming the government despite external pressures, Sikharulidze suggested.

"I remind you that opinion polls operate on a 100% scale. However, since voter turnout typically reaches a maximum of 65%, all statistical data should be adjusted accordingly. Additionally, there remains a large percentage of undecided voters, who traditionally support the party that promises the least upheaval," the expert clarified.

Given this scenario, a color revolution is nearly impossible, as such movements require a minimal margin between the leading party and the runner-up, Sikharulidze pointed out.

"Therefore, the opposition aims to secure at least 33–35% of the vote. In such a case, they could claim election fraud, and the West could support their stance. However, all current data indicate that such a deadlock situation is unlikely," Sikharulidze stated.

He added that the opposition's task is further complicated by Georgia's near-complete transition to electronic voting, which makes large-scale election fraud difficult.

"This is precisely why Western countries are making statements urging Georgian voters to carefully consider their choice. Translated into plain language, this means: 'We support those who are on our side. Therefore, vote for them; otherwise, we will not be able to negotiate with you, and all the benefits we offer will not be available to you.' This is open participation in the election campaign," the expert explained.

Sikharulidze added that Western countries cannot simply refuse to recognize the elections as legitimate, as doing so requires specific leverage, which they currently lack. Therefore, their maximum goal is to create a deadlock situation, he believes.

"To create such a scenario, they need to win over neutral voters. These are individuals who cannot be intimidated by threats of losing a green card, as they do not need one," the political scientist noted.

However, despite "Georgian Dream" not being the West's preferred choice in the upcoming elections, if it wins and forms a government, Western countries will not be able to ignore it, Sikharulidze pointed out.

"If the West refuses to recognize the Georgian government, which plays a crucial role in the South Caucasus, its objectives will remain unclear. If your goal is to reestablish total control over Georgia, then you cannot ignore it, as you will not win any elections there in four years," he stated, emphasizing that even the previous opposition, which under Mikheil Saakashvili repeatedly claimed election fraud, ultimately came to power through elections.

Sikharulidze dismissed Zourabichvili’s intention to announce the composition of a technical government in case of an opposition victory as unserious.

"A technical government is established in a country experiencing either a revolution or a civil war. Declaring the formation of such a government in Georgia is akin to a person with all limbs intact claiming to need a prosthetic. She is essentially calling for the delegitimization of our institutions. I experienced this in the 1990s—it is called civil war," Sikharulidze concluded.

The interview was initially published by Ukraine.RU and is available here.